AHDB milk production forecast update

Published 25 September 18

AHDB has reviewed their 2018/19 milk production forecast and extended it through to September 2019. The updated forecast brings our prediction for total 2018/19 production to 12,381 million litres, up 0.4% from our June forecast but down a marginal 0.2% on 2017/18.

This slight increase in forecasted production has been helped by improving weather conditions and higher production through August and September. However, we are still anticipating November-January to be below 2017/18 as the challenging summer brings uncertainty to winter feed supplies and prices.

Looking forward into 2019, production is expected to be above last year in the spring, based on normal seasonal weather conditions. Summer production is expected to be similar to this year’s on an overall July-September basis – although hopefully with more level weather conditions.

The forecast takes into consideration the factors that we already know will affect volumes. As always, external factors such as weather, milk prices and feed costs will continue to have an impact on volumes, however we have attempted to factor in all known impacts to deliver a sensible estimate of where milk volumes could come out.

GB prod fcast graph

Gb prod fcast table

Figures in red are forecasts. It should be noted that this forecast includes a number of projections and assumptions, based on information currently available, but still involve risks, variables and uncertainties. Consequently, no guarantee is given to the accuracy of the forecast, but it is simply put forward as our best estimate at the time of publication.