Bluetongue Advisory - risk of airborne introduction to UK from the near-continent

Published 6 October 16

Bluetongue Advisory - risk of airborne introduction to UK from the near-continent

Summary: Period 8 September to 27 September 2016

 

1. Summary

Disease (Completed by APHA): The French have continued to report BTV again this week, with a further 65 outbreaks detected since the last of these reports. Several more regions affected but all in the central restriction zone and all non-clinical cases in cattle. Some of these are tests required for animals to move out of the zone. Sentinel surveillance is taking place in the free areas, and no positive reports have been made from these regions. The map below shows the counties which were at risk according to our last bluetongue advisory report (12th September - covering period 25th August to 7th September).

BTV 8 In France

Midge activity (Completed by The Pirbright Institute): The vector period started from 12th April 2016.

All 8 sites currently providing samples show high levels of adult activity across England and Jersey in the last quarter with no significant differences from previous years in abundance.

Meteorology/modelling (Completed by the Met Office): Over the last fortnight there have been many occasions at both sunset and sunrise when air trajectories from the continent would have passed over the UK. For many of these episodes the model predicts that midge transport to the UK would also have been possible. A detailed analysis is given in Table 1. Observed surface temperatures over the past fortnight have also been above the threshold for midge transport. However, the weather forecast for the next five days suggests that temperatures across southern England and northern France will now fall below 15C.

2. Overall risk level

In view of the latest disease intelligence, suitable weather over Europe, considerable midge activity, short virus replication rates the overall risk level is maintained at:

Negligible/Very low/Low/Medium/High/Very High.

3. Contact details

Please send any enquiries to iadm@apha.gsi.gov.uk.

Information contained in this advisory was compiled from contributions from those listed below.

 

Animal & Plant Health Agency

Helen Roberts

Ruth Moir

 

Met Office

Sarah Millington

Frances Beckett

 

The Pirbright Institute

Simon Gubbins

Anthony Wilson

Simon Carpenter