Global milk production continues to fall

Published 2 November 16

The combined milk production of the five main exporting regions continued its decline in August, with the daily milk production equivalent* down 0.3% compared with July.

Despite being the start of the new season in the southern hemisphere, NZ milk production in August, was down 2.7% on August last year. Sustained low farmgate prices in Europe have meant that EU28 production has continued to fall month-on-month for the last four months. However, the drop in production appears to finally be stabilising, with a fall of just 0.1%* month-on-month in August.

Four of the five key regions have recorded year-on-year decreases for cumulative production from April to August. Argentina was down 16.8%, Australia down 7.3%, New Zealand down 1.1% and the EU28 down 0.3%. Only the US has shown an increase, with production 1.3% higher than the same period in 2015.

September production figures are available for the US and NZ. Seasonally adjusted milk production in the US is showing a further increase, and production is now running 2.1% above September last year. NZ production in September is put at 1.1% up on last year, partly reversing the deficit recorded in August. September production figures are not yet available for Australia, Argentina or EU28.

Global production graph 02.11.16

Source: AHDB estimates

*AHDB applies a seasonal adjustment to milk production for the big five exporting regions (EU, NZ, Australia, US and Argentina) to create a daily equivalent. This allows figures to be compared month-on-month, allowing trends to be spotted earlier than the more traditional rolling 12-month totals.

The EU production figure for August 2016 includes an estimate for Spain, as the actual volume is not yet available.