2017-18 milk production tracker

Published 28 March 17

In order to monitor better where GB milk production is tracking, AHDB has published a tracker* for the 2017-18 milk year. The result gives a marker for where milk production in the country would normally be expected to be. While not a forecast of where milk production will go, it will allow us to determine easily whether milk production is rising or falling more rapidly than normal.

If production did follow the 5-year tracker for 2017-18, milk production in GB would come out around 12.1bn litres. The peak to trough ratio would be 1.13, meaning daily deliveries in May would be 13% higher than daily deliveries in October/November.

Last year, AHDB encouraged farmers and milk buyers to re-assess whether all-year round calving was the most beneficial for the industry. Comparison with the tracker will allow us to see whether changes on farm are impacting on the overall seasonal profile for the country.

GB daily deliveries with tracker Mar17 

 * Week-on-week movements in milk production for the last five years were combined to create an average milk profile for a typical milk year. Applying this typical milk profile to milk production in the middle of March 2017, allows AHDB to create a milk profile for the coming year. This is not a forecast, but simply a projection based on historic trends.