Forecasted production still high despite early peak

Published 14 June 19

An update to our GB milk production forecast puts expected volumes for 2019/20 at 12.56 billion litres. This is marginally down from our last forecast, but would still be a 29-year high if met. This forecast reflects expectations that yields are returning to normal levels, and from a slight reduction to expected herd numbers later in the year.

Continued strong yields from the winter, boosted from increased concentrate feeding, pushed production above expectations in April. An early peak brought the figures back in May. Going forwards, we expect yields to return to more normal levels as concentrates are reduced in favour of forage. This does, however, assume normal weather conditions. 

Additionally, we have reduced our expectation of herd size for the October-December period, based on trends seen in the latest available herd data. This has reduced the expected production in the trough months by 25m litres.

Although production in the British Isles has been high, the picture is quite different elsewhere. Global milk supply expectations have been reduced from 0.9% growth to 0.3% growth, with only modest growth in the EU. Continued access to the EU market for exports, at least until October, should help support market returns. However, a lack of storage capacity continues to be a concern for the domestic market.

June fcast graph

June fcast table