The impact of MFPR on milk yields

Published 27 February 17

Based on GB overall milk production, and BCMS dairy herd numbers, milk yields recorded a year-on-year decrease for the majority of 2016, but are now showing signs of increasing.

Logically there should be a relationship between the affordability of feed and farmers’ ability to push for higher milk yields. The chart below plots the annual movement in milk yields compared with the Milk to Feed Price Ratio (MFPR).  This suggests that, apart from the period shortly after milk quota removal, denoted by the dotted line below, there is a relationship between the two series. 

 Milk yield versus MFPR Feb17

While not surprising, identifying the underlying relationship does allow us to better predict where milk yields will go in the future. This, combined with analysis on cow numbers, can help provide an indication of future milk volumes for the country.