EU milk production up, but not by much

Published 20 December 17

From January to October 2017, EU28 deliveries were 0.28% above where we would expect them to be given historical growth, if the impact of the European milk production reduction scheme is removed.

EU milk deliveries in 2017 seem to be showing stronger growth than in 2016, based on a tracker of the last 3 years. The tracker provides a baseline for comparing whether actual production is rising or falling as expected. With this tracker, deliveries are 1.5% above where we would expect them to be.

However this is a comparison to an artificially low period of production. The milk reduction scheme that ran from October 2016 to January 2017 offered financial incentives to farmers across Europe to slow production and brought volumes over the period down by over 1,467 million litres, compared to the same period the previous year.

If our tracker is based on the 3 years before the milk reduction scheme i.e. 2013 to 2015, production is only 0.28% above where we would expect, equivalent to about 1.2 million litres per day. 

 

2017.12.21. eu milk

 

 Month-on-month movements in milk production in the EU28 over a 3 year period (incl MRS: 2014-2016, not incl MRS: 2013-15) were used to create an average milk profile for a typical milk year. Applying this typical milk profile to EU28 milk production in December 2016 allows AHDB to create a milk profile for the coming year. This is not a forecast, but simply a baseline projection determined by historic trends.