Global milk production shows signs of stability

Published 2 August 16

Despite the seasonal upturn in production in the northern hemisphere, the combined milk production of the 5 key exporting regions (EU28, US, NZ, Australia and Argentina) showed a reduction in May*. This was mostly the result of a slowdown in average daily production in the EU.

In May, the daily milk production equivalent* for the key 5 was down 0.7% versus April. The largest influence on this slowdown was from the EU, which saw a drop of 4m litres per day in milk equivalent.  Since April 2016, the year-on-year rise in milk production has averaged a much more conservative 0.2%. Up until March 2016, the key 5 were running around 2.5% up year-on-year, predominantly driven by the EU’s step-up in milk volumes post quota.

 Global milk production shows signs of stability

June production figures are available for Australia, NZ and US. The US remains on a growth path, but this is offset by drops in both Australia and NZ, where farmgate milk prices remain at low levels. June production figures for the EU and Argentina are not yet available. However, further declines would be expected in the EU resulting from the impacts of low farmgate prices and the recently announced aid package which could pay farmers for reducing output, while Argentina continues to struggle with eroding margins and flooding in the main dairying regions.

*AHDB applies a seasonal adjustment to milk production for the big five exporting regions (EU, NZ, Australia, US and Argentina) to create a daily equivalent. This allows figures to be compared month-on-month, allowing trends to be spotted earlier than the more traditional rolling 12-month totals.